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We are a less than four months away from the announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees, with the Academy recently announcing that it would do so on Jan. 10, 2013. And with the conclusion of this year’s Telluride, Venice and Toronto festivals, the awards season is definitely in high gear. Here is my final batch of predictions in some of the top categories for the month of September. I am also updating this list in real time in the Oscar Tracker page.

BEST PICTURE

Les Miserables

The Master

Argo

Silver Linings Playbook

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Richard Gere (Arbitrage)

BEST ACTRESS

Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)

Emanuelle Riva (Amour)

Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)

William H. Macy (The Sessions)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Amy Adams (The Master)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Samantha Banks (Les Miserables)

BEST DIRECTOR

Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)

Ben Affleck (Argo)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Master

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Django Unchained

The Sessions

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Les Miserables

Silver Linings Playbook

Lincoln

Argo

Cloud Atlas

Fearless forecast: Timur Bekmambetov’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter is going to be remembered as the better Lincoln film by the end of the year. Sure, Daniel Day-Lewis will probably put in another intense performance, and the Spielberg Dream Team will hit all the requisite Oscar-bait-y beats. But AL:VH will stand as the movie that took more risks and entertained more people (although some may be loath to admit the extent of their amusement). With the negative buzz and unapologetically ridiculous premise (particularly to non-Americans), I was ready to groan through what would most likely be a painful mess. But by the first chilling flash of full-on vampiric menace, I bought into this unlikely summer sleeper.

The period details and historical events really act more like window dressing here, fleshing out what would have been a run-of-the-mill slay-the-monster hero’s journey on top of a rather ponderous historical biography. AL: VH could have had the worst of both genres, and it does sometimes over-reach with all the mixed metaphors and mashed-up movie tropes. However, for the most part, the narrative clichés help keep the story moving at a decent clip while still leaving room for some of the more quotable and notable moments in Lincoln’s life. It’s kind of like The Greatest Hits of The Great Emancipator. The presidential biopic part is played relatively straight, and Ocar-nominated Caleb Deschanel’s luscious cinematography plus the evocatively exaggerated color-grading anchor the film with some necessary visual gravitas. So when the action-horror aspects kick in, you really appreciate how more imaginative the movie is than what you’d expect of it. Your mileage may vary in terms of swallowing some of the more over-the-top stunts and effects in the big set-pieces, but for me at least, there’s true wit, and even real beauty to some of the sequences. Although the latter “boss battles” seem to owe more to Nintendo than Nosferatu. As a vampire film though, another thing the movie has going for it is that it features some of the most effective vampire make-up/CGI work in recent memory. These vamps look FIERCE, and I mean that both in the Tyra Banks and Fangoria sense. Fiercest of all is supermodel Erin Wasson as vamp Vadoma, reminiscent of Lisa Marie’s turn as Vampira in producer Tim Burton’s Ed Wood.

Benjamin Walker may be physically appropriate but he’s merely dramatically adequate as Honest Abe. This could be giving him the benefit of the  doubt, but the prosthetics and fancy axe-work, plus the burden of carrying his very first big Hollywood film, may all have overwhelmed him enough to blunt his performance. Rufus Sewell can pretty much play a big bad in his undead sleep by now, while Dominic Cooper continues to bide his time before snagging his real break-out role by lending support as the mysterious mentor here.  Mary Elizabeth Winstead comes a long way from Ramona Flowers by proving she can get all laced up in a corset, and act motherly and mature to boot. Unfortunately, Anthony Mackie underwhelms as an underwritten token sidekick.

Seth Grahame-Smith may be no Stoppard or Sorkin, and he’s not getting any Writer’s Guild noms for this one for sure, but he does more focused and effective story-smithing here than he did for Burton’s Dark Shadows. Having a Kazakh helm this material was a clever move since vampire genre vet Bekmambetov (whose Nightwatch single-handedly dragged Russian horror out from the cold) obviously had no qualms about thoroughly messing with the Lincoln legacy. I believe that some critics who’ve been harsh on the film may be expecting some sort of post-modern self-aware in-joke that its title sets it up to be, instead of the period gore/lore piece it actually ends up as. You don’t really have to lower your expectations to enjoy AL:VH, you just need to have different expectations. As far as would-be bipolar blockbusters go, I think it’s a good thing to keep the Burton-Bekmambetov-Grahame-Smith ward off their meds.

It is still June, a good seven months away from the Oscars and yet pundits are already starting to talk about this year’s potential contenders. I honestly don’t mind — just like an election, it’s interesting to see movies and names being tossed into the Oscar conversation and the list of potential nominees and winners getting whittled down as the actual date approaches. That’s what I find interesting.

A good place to start is Gold Derby’s list of predicted winners which lists the initial predictions for the major categories. Currently sitting at the top of the Best Picture list is Steven Spielberg’s upcoming movie, Lincoln.

Based on the biography Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln written by Doris Kearns Goodwin, the movie will feature Daniel-Day Lewis in the titular role. Supporting him is a stellar cast comprised of Sally Field as Mary Todd,  Joseph Gordon-Levitt as their eldest son Robert and Tommy Lee Jones as Republican congressman Thaddeus Stevens. Tony Kushner, who has worked on the script for six years, is the screenwriter.

Abe Lincoln is America’s most mythical president, and the movie will focus on “the political collision of Lincoln and the powerful men of his cabinet on the road to abolition and the end of the Civil War.”  Based on the premise alone, this seems like pretty powerful Oscar bait, potentially evoking the same sense of gravitas and grandeur displayed by previous Best Picture winners such as Gandhi, The King’s Speech and Spielberg’s own Schindler’s List. The movie’s Oscar success will be pegged on Daniel Day-Lewis performance, on whether or not he can tap into the brooding, melancholic demeanor of Lincoln.

But I am quite skeptical about its Oscar success. Around this time last year, War Horse was being touted as the film to beat and was on top of that very same list at Gold Derby. And the reason why it failed was because of Spielberg’s heavy-handed direction, an outmoded, saccharine take on the goodness of man. Ultimately, what undid War Horse was its very Spielberg-ness — the calculated sentimentality, the arduous attempts at humanism and that John Williams score that hammered home the film’s pathos.

I have no reason to believe that Spielberg will try to turn things around and let Lincoln’s tragic life speak for itself, but I am willing to be pleasantly surprised. Again, it all depends if Day-Lewis will turn in a knock-out performance, but barring that, this film feels like it’s massively being overrated.

Here’s my initial list for  which movies I think will be the core ten  Best Picture nominees, ranked by likelihood of winning:

1. Les Miserables – Tom Hooper

2. The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson

3. Lincoln – Steven Spielberg

4.  Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino

5. The Great Gatsby – Baz Luhrmann

6. Beasts of the Southern Wild – Benh Zeitlin

7. Zero Dark Thirty – Kathryn Bigelow

8. Life of Pi – Ang Lee

9. Anna Karenina – Joe Wright

10. Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson

Of course take all of this with a grain of salt. Like I said, what’s fun is seeing this list evolve and morph in all kinds of unexpected ways.

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